BEIRUT, LEBANON: Turkish-led fighters on Sunday captured Afrin from Kurdish fighters and this development is viewed as major factor to play in future of Syria’s protracted war.
For Syrian regime and the party of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, the takeover of Afrin Turkey means a lot.
What Erdagon gained till now?
Turkey and its ally Free Syrian Army lauched offensive on January 20 to capture the Afrin enclave from the YPG. Ankara labels YPG fighters and its sympethisers to be a ‘terrorist’ organisation which is an offshoot of its now outlawed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK).
Ankara, by gaining control of Afrin has gained in terms of controlling its own border in northen Syria, for which it has supported various armed groups in the past.
“The Turks are victorious, they were always going to be victorious,” Aaron Stein, from the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center, said.
“They have lopped off another piece of Syrian territory and will have incorporated it into Turkey governing structures.”
The seven-year war in Syria has killed more than 350,000 people and displaced many of the country’s population both from inside and abroad of Syria. Many refugees from Syria reached Turkey to stay safe.
On priority basis, Ankara can move all of the refugee populations who are based in Turkey as of now into Turkish controlled areas in Syria.
“Taking Afrin was a success for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who shrugged off international concern to press on with the operation”, Nicholas Heras, a security fellow at the Center for a New American Security said in his comment on the operation.
“Afrin is one of the most strategic areas of northwest Syria. It is a piece of real estate that anchors Turkey’s presence for many years to come,” Heras said.
This is not the end of the victory
Erdogan has time and again repeated his stance over Afrin that they would expand their mission to other key border towns upto the Iraqi frontier which are under YPG control.
Kurds are at disaster point
The Afrin takeover by Ankaran brings more trouble for Syria’s Kurds who largely stayed out of the country’s conflict from seven years due to their focuss on building an autonomous region after years of marginalisation.
Before the Turkish assault, the Kurdish-controlled region known as Rojava ran across large swathes of Kurdish-majority parts of north and northeast Syria.
Kurds will have to further face humiliation at the hands of Turkey if it were to attempt expansion of its mission in Syria.
Assad under scanner
Despite the fact that the main players in Afrin battle are Turkey and YPG, but Syrian regime leader Bashar Al Asad will also have to face new problems arising out of the present situation.
“Every metre of Syria that Turkish troops and their Syrian rebel proxies march on is now placed well beyond the reach of Damascus,” analyst Heras said.